Wednesday, November 08, 2006

An Iraq Aside

Now, the dems are clearly in favor of some kind of pullout. But it is clear that Americans are in favor of a pullout. Dems ran on it, many republicans ran on it, or at least ran ads to distance themselves from the president. It is going to happen. Some people might feel that degeneration into civil war is NOT inevitable. I no longer am in this group. But even if the goal is to 'win', where it simply means stability in regards to it's neighbors, this dem win has several benefits and caveats.

1. Rumsfeld is Gone. Because of this election. If the reason is incompetence or inablity to change tactics, that's a great turning point. (I believed it may have been at the beginning, but now it's too late)
2. A timetable for withdrawal is a very effective means of putting pressure on the Iraqi government to actually reach a political compromise, which has eluded them. If we leave, it will be up to the local population to elect compromisers instead of hard liners. (Who knows if this would matter, or if I'm stating the case correctly.)
3. Congress does not have the authority to pull out, leaving them there for two years (Bush's remaining term). They do have the ability to cut funding for the war, but I believe it's an untenable political position that won't happen. This gives two years for the iraq government to train up thier forces, if that's the issue.
4. The democratic congress will not authorize war with Iran or Syria, barring the actual necessity to do so.
5. Democrats have much better relations with our allies. I agree that there is no way in hell that other countries will DIRECTLY help Iraq, much can be done with diplomatic support, and periphery support such as intelligence sharing and blocking materials from being shipped to the war zone, etc.

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